Written by Tshire Mokou 30th August 2018.


There’s been a lot of talk recently that the Bitcoin Bear Market that has been in play since early this year could be about transform into a Bitcoin Bull Market.

The Bitcoin chart Year-to-Date price action shows that it has carved a clear level of support at the $5940 – $6000 USD level. Price has attempted to break this level of support on three occasions (early Feb, Early July and Mid-August) yet failed to get any lower than this price level and as a result price has since rebounded from those levels.

Recently price has found it difficult to manuvoure above the $8000 to $8500 USD level, after attempted breaks but failing to close above.

The $6750 level has proven to be a significant price level as price found support in April and then it found it difficult to breach the level when it turned into resistance around end of June to Mid-July.

Possible Near-term outcomes

Uptrend

For price to continue up further there would want to be a retest of the “resistance turned support” level of 6750. In the past once price broke this level the moved up extremely quickly (highlighted in the circle).


Other technical factors attributing to a move to the upside:
⦁ Both EMA’s (Exponential Moving Average) are about to cross and the intersection is in confluence with the 6750 price level
⦁ Price has already broke the $6756 price level
⦁ The $6000 price level has been tested 3 times in the past and bounced back each time.
The assumption is that price will attempt to test some higher levels as a result of this bounce from the lower price levels. This may mark the beginning stages of an uptrend. The Target price range we would want to see tested is the $7800 to $8500

Downtrend

Price has continued to follow a down trend since we had a price high of almost $20,000 USD. So it is very likely that this trend will continue. There is a possibility that price would struggle to break a price level of 7500 in the near term and we could expect to see a sell off in price back down to test previous lowers.


Other technical factors attributing to a move to the upside:
⦁ Downtrend pattern has not changed since price sell off
⦁ The 7800 price level poses a strong level of resistance and price could continue lower after testing that level.
⦁ Price has continued to respect the trend line shown in blue since start of the year.
The expectation would be price would continue further down and test the price lows of 6000 USD and maybe even break this level, however this price level in the past has proven to be quite strong. We would want to see a break and close of a daily candle to see further price movement down past $6000 USD

Long to medium term outlook

Technically price is in a downtrend and respecting the trend line, however there is a clear base around the $6000 mark. With that being said price has historically used previous base levels to bounce off before breaking out of the downside trend.


So the wedge formation is almost filled on the Daily Chart so over the next few weeks we could expect some price movement possibly a drop in price before an eventual move to the upside.

A confirmed trend reversal breakout followed by the start of a strong bull run could be due in Late September-October or perhaps as far away as early November which coincidentally coincides with the November 2017 bull-run.

Although timing trend reversals exactly remains elusive, one thing does look certain, that a Bitcoin Bull market is impending.

 


Written by Tshire Mokou 30th August 2018. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice please do your own independent research.
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