Written by Tshire Mokou 4th September 2018. Published on Dapp.tech 5th September 2018.


Year to date

The price of Monero has been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of the year and the December highs. Price has declined from about $450 USD to as low as $83.00 USD and the overall Cryptocurrency market has seen a bearish market since the introduction of the Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before the end of 2017.

Possible Near term Outcomes:

Downtrend

 

 

The price action for Monero has been consistently respecting the 50 EMA (Cyan Line) since the upside surge back in Late-April to Early-May. As a result price has continued in a clear downtrend and the likelihood is a continued downside move towards a price zone of $83.00 to $75.00 USD
Other Technical contributing Factors
⦁ Price is currently at a price level of $117.00 (Support / Resistance) which in the past has proved to be difficult area for price to push through.
⦁ Price has created lower level consistently since the Late April from Price level $298.00 to the current support low of $83.00
⦁ Price hasn’t accelerated through
The expectation is that price would respect a price level of $125.00 and then would continue on further back to the previous low of $83.00 as a downtrend is set for an alternative situation of an uptrend to happen price would need to break and close above the price $125.00 to $130.00

Uptrend

 

For this Scenario to occur price would need to see a clear break above the 120 price level and continue towards the $150.00 to $165.00 price zone.
Other Technical contributing Factors
⦁ Price has broken above the $120.00 level since price had reached a low of $83.00
⦁ Both the EMA’s are about to cross over or converge over the next few days and once the occur this signal is a positive for a possible upward swing in price
⦁ The level of 83.00 to 80.00 is the previous lows of November 2017 which offer a very strong level of support for price to react/bounce off.
The expectation would be that price would continue upwards towards the $150.00 price level and for a new upward trend to be in place we would want to see a break of the psychological price level of $200.00 to see a true bullish trend in place.

Long to medium term outlook

 

 

With the simple trend lines in place price is start to break trend towards an upside swing as it has past through the most recent trend which started in April/May at approximately $300.00 and broke trend in the beginning of August.

Now price has recently tested the previous low-level set in Sep/Oct 2017 at approximately the $80.00 level and then consequently took flight later on in November 2017. So this could be a cyclical price pattern and we could see price break the more predominant trend line (highlight with the orange line.) longer term price would attempt a test of the previous highs of $450.00 – $475.00 as it does test previous lows. With all due respect price does not move in a straight line and if it does this is usually short-lived. So the expectation is price will pass through all levels of resistance and react with a pull back. Let’s see if price will first test the $150.00 level and then continue on further.

 

Written by Tshire Mokou 4th September 2018. Published on Dapp.tech 5th September 2018. This is not financial or investment advice. Please always do your own research. DYOR.
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